The policemen block our path and one taps on our car window. We roll it down and ask him where the meeting is. We are here for a gathering organised by the political opposition in Ngiri Ngiri, a bustling commune in the centre of Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo's sprawling capital.
The police officer, muscular and chewing insouciantly, tells us that we have been misinformed and that no opposition events are being held in the Kimbanguist religious centre 20 metres ahead.
His lie is exposed by a small group of activists who appear at the car's other window and afterwards by the stream of people filing out of the building under instructions from the large police cohort patrolling this otherwise unremarkable part of the city.
It is Tuesday, January 19, and similar scenes are playing out at most of the 44 sites across Kinshasa where Citizen Front 2016 - a large coalition of opposition political parties and civil society organisations formed a month ago - have arranged a series of conferences followed by church services to commemorate the killing, one year before, of opposition demonstrators by security forces. Exactly how many people were killed is disputed; the International Federation for Human Rights puts the number at 42, the government at 27.
It is still unclear how many of the government's political opponents were arrested on the anniversary day - some put the number at around 40; others above 100. But Pierrot Mwanamputu, spokesperson for the Congolese National Police, told Al Jazeera that everyone detained was soon released.
"Early in the morning, the government sent soldiers and policemen to the site allotted to me and my party where they blocked our access and arrested five of my activists," said Martin Fayulu, a leading figure within the Citizen Front. "They told the priest to stop the mass, not only here but at all the other sites too."
Albert Moleka is a founding member of the Citizen Front and a veteran of Congolese politics. He was supposed to attend the conference in Ngiri Ngiri, but says: "The regime wants no opposition demonstrations in Kinshasa at all."
Both Moleka and Vital Kamerhe, a Citizen Front heavyweight who finished third in the flawed presidential elections in 2011, claim that the police were assisted by machete-wielding thugs loyal to the DRC's president, Joseph Kabila, who harangued and intimidated opposition activists.
The United Nations' mission in the DRC, MONUSCO, has not gathered any evidence to substantiate these allegations at this point, but Jose Maria Aranaz, the director of the UN's Joint Human Rights Office, told Al Jazeera that "there was a concerted effort by the police and the ANR [the intelligence agency] to impede the opposition's demonstrations from taking place".
Police spokesperson Mwanamputu justified the clampdown by saying that the organisers had published leaflets of "seditious character calling on the population to rebel against" the government and had not secured proper authorisation - something opposition leaders insist was not required.
Joseph Kabila
Kabila has been the DRC's president since 2001, when he succeeded his father who was shot by a bodyguard during the country's civil war.
He was first elected five years later and renewed his mandate in late 2011. The president's party, the PPRD, often holds public events.
"The double standards in the application of the law when banning opposition rallies is contrary to a level playing field," Aranaz said.
That the clampdown on the opposition gatherings came on the day they were due to mark the one-year anniversary of the protests - and the resulting violent crackdown - in January 2015, gave it added significance.
Protesters took to the streets of the capital and other cities last January to oppose a draft law that would allow Kabila to extend his stay in power beyond his current mandate, which ends in December 2016. The law called for a new, nationwide census to serve as the basis for the voter list and distribution of parliamentary seats - an undertaking that could take years in a country as vast and poorly connected as DRC.
The opposition saw it as an attempt by Kabila and his supporters to buy time during which he could engineer a modified constitution that would allow him to run for a third term in office.
The census provision was removed from the legislation that was subsequently passed, but the opposition says it was only ever one of numerous methods available to Kabila to delay the holding of elections.
The most effective method, some say, has been to undermine the workings of the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), chiefly by withholding funds allocated to it in the national budget.
Lambert Mende, the communications minister, told Al Jazeera that it is "completely false" that the government could block the electoral process and that CENI, not the government, is charged with organising elections. But this is the electoral commission that members of the opposition claim is undeserving of the "independent" in its name.
According to Jason Stearns, the director of the Congo Research Group at New York University, the opposition's accusations are justified. "The political influence on the electoral commission has been clear," says Stearns. "While, in theory, the political opposition can nominate members to the body, almost none of those are still recognised by the opposition."
Indeed, a timetable prepared by CENI in mid-January and distributed to embassies in Kinshasa shows that the electoral commission foresees it taking between 13 and 16 months just to update DRC's electoral roll.
At its unveiling just before Christmas, the Citizen Front gave the government an ultimatum: It must "unblock the electoral process" before the end of January and allow CENI to publish an electoral calendar. Should Kabila fail to meet this fast-approaching deadline, the opposition coalition has promised to launch a programme of nonviolent resistance.
But this red line appears largely symbolic, and few expect a meaningful organisation of elections to get under way before February. Even the leaders of the Citizen Front seem to doubt that much will change. "The government won't unblock the electoral process," said Martin Fayulu.
He thinks Kabila may nominate "a weak successor" if he encounters a strong and united opposition, but believes that the president's "first choice is to violate the constitution and carry on as president without elections".
Moleka adds: "Kabila's logic is that it's him or chaos and civil war."
"Elections will not be held because of lack of political will. If President Kabila could run, then elections would take place," says Vital Kamerhe.
The Citizen Front
The leaders of the Citizen Front say they expect what happened on January 19 to serve as a template for the rest of the year.
The opposition coalition has a march scheduled for February 16, but Moleka says he is convinced that "all our peaceful actions will be repressed".
Despite being just a month old, the Citizen Front already finds itself in an uncertain position. On the one hand, it represents a singular achievement for the DRC's famously fractious opposition. The country's largest opposition party, the UDPS, is currently riven by factionalism and it is unclear whether it will join the platform, but all the other main anti-Kabila parties have lined up under the banner of the Citizen Front.
Furthermore, among the founding signatories is Moise Katumbi, a former Kabila confidante who split with the president in September 2015. Katumbi, the former governor of resource-rich Katanga, is wealthy and popular, as well as the owner of the football team TP Mazembe.
For the moment, the Citizen Front appears united and the leading figures have spoken of the importance of the coalition supporting a single candidate for the presidency. Katumbi is currently thought to be best placed to challenge Kabila, but he will need to convince a diverse alliance of party bosses and their followers to lend him their backing.
Yet, as Moleka wryly observes, "The question of a joint candidate really isn't the problem du jour" and such talk is getting wildly ahead of political realities.
The events of January 19 appear to demonstrate the extent to which the game is rigged in Kabila's favour as he continues to control the levers of economic and political power. Furthermore, following an emergency ruling by the Constitutional Court in September 2015, 21 out of DRC's 26 provinces are now ruled by appointees of the president rather than governors elected by provincial legislatures.
It is difficult to gauge how much support the opposition commands on the streets of Kinshasa and across the country. The opposition controls many seats in the national assembly, but will it actually be able to build a mass movement capable of forcing the president to call elections?
The Congo Research Group's Stearns notes that "in the DRC's recent history, there is little track record of mass mobilisation leading to political change".
The opposition has had "a hard time creating leverage in the streets - even after extremely flawed elections in 2011", he adds.
Yet, despite this note of caution, Stearns believes that "We are in new waters now as many political powerbrokers [such as Katumbi] have joined the opposition and we have a new generation of Congolese youths trying to create a new movement around a new social philosophy."
But, however united, popular and energised it is, the opposition faces an uphill struggle in its quest for elections and the first peaceful transfer of power since independence.
Source: Al Jazeera
Friday, January 29, 2016
Morocco: Parliamentary elections to happen in 2016
AEP] Morocco’s parliamentary elections have been slated for October 7 according to a government source. This will be the second time since constitutional reforms were adopted in 2011 to address unrest during the Arab Spring that plagued the country.
Though the new constitution gave the elected government more powers, King Mohammed VI, who became King of Morocco after the demise of his father King Hassan II, still holds the final authority.
A government statement read, “The next parliamentary elections will take place on Oct. 7, 2016,”. The ruling Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD) that won the 2011 elections is expected to win again in the face of austerity measures the party is currently pursuing.
AEP
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Somalia: Leaders accept roadmap for elections
[AEP] Somalia’s political leaders, on Thursday, agreed on a roadmap to organise elections this year after 2 days of intense discussions in the capital, Mogadishu.
The election is expected to bring peace and stability to the long-stressed East African country. The agreement will lead to the creation of an upper house of parliament which has 54 seats apportioned among Somalia's states.
Meanwhile, a power-sharing system will be used share the current 275 seats in the lower house of parliament among the country's 4 main clans and the smaller ones using the 4.5 formula. 30% of all seats will be reserved for women. This upcoming parliament, when created, will select a president to replace incumbent Hassan Sheikh Mohamud who has been in office since 2012.
Dates for the elections are yet to be given.
AEP
Get the latest news and updates on elections in Africa by following us on twitter @africanelection and like our facebook page
Thursday, January 28, 2016
Africa’s 2015 election experiences present dilemmas for 2016 polls
This year, like 2015, promises to be yet another busy year in Africa’s electoral democracy stakes. More than a third of the continent’s 54 countries will conduct polls.
All elections are important, but in some countries they carry particular weight. Key ones coming up are:
Senatorial, state and federal constituency elections in Nigeria. In Africa’s most populous nation elections can serve as a yardstick for advancing electoral democracy. This year’s elections are expected to lead to further governance reforms. They follow last year’s presidential poll which ushered in a new government.
Burkina Faso also experienced fundamental change in 2015 with the departure of President Blaise Compaore. The change must be consolidated with electoral participation of citizens and normalisation of politics in soon-to-be-held municipal elections.
Elections in the Central African Republic will be closely watched. They present an opportunity for stabilising a country that has experienced conflict.
Zambia’s situation is unique. Its recent elections led to a change of government through the ballot — a rare phenomenon in African politics. Presidential and general elections are due in August.
Uganda’s presidential poll will undoubtedly test President Yoweri Museveni’s entrenchment of power. Uganda will face the challenge of adhering to international and African Union election standards by ensuring level playing fields for all candidates.
The DRC presidential election set for November will also be scrutinised because of previous violence and the country’s propensity for instability.
Ghana’s general elections in November might provide lessons on how to trust in the power of the ballot and run elections peacefully. But its leadership faces severe constraints given that the economy is in the doldrums. It has had to turn to the IMF for assistance.
South Africa will arguably hold its most important municipal elections since 1994. To be held between May and August, the elections will test the popularity of the governing African National Congress. Signs are its support is falling in some municipalities.
Elections in the coming year will be held as economic growth shows signs of slowing in Africa. Tougher economic times might heighten electoral stakes.
The good and the bad of 2015
In 2015 almost 20 African countries held municipal, regional, general, presidential elections and by-elections. Two referenda were also held in Rwanda and the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville).
Rwanda’s citizens apparently voted overwhelmingly in favour of extending President Paul Kagame’s term of office, possibly until 2034. The referendum ostensibly suggests that the incumbent respects the popular will by subjecting the term limit to the vote.
The Republic of Congo’s President Dennis Sassou Nguesso also called a referendum to amend the presidential term and age limits, a move rejected by opposition parties. He thus joined African leaders who devise innovative means to cling to power while opposing the provisions of the African Charter on democracy, elections and governance.
But how significant are elections in Africa?
Regular changes of government through free, fair and democratic elections that reflect the wishes of the majority of voters are critical for democratisation.
The 2015 polls could tempt us to perceive elections as a reliable measure of democratisation. But 2015 presented mixed opportunities and drawbacks for democratisation. A major drawback is that some leaders clung to power and elections simply became rubber stamping exercises for the incumbents. This happened in the DRC, Rwanda, Congo (Brazzavile) and Gabon.
Elections are an essential component of democratisation, but other more important measures include:
narrowing the rich-poor gap,
improving living standards and promoting active citizenship,
freedom of expression and media,
respect for human rights and rule of law, and
accountable public representatives.
Isolated successes were registered in last year’s elections. Some countries for once conducted polls acceptable to local opposition parties, civil society and domestic and international observers. Fewer incidents of violence were seen. Tanzania was a particular case in point.
But, nothing spectacular emerged from Africa’s 2015 elections. Some polls actually perpetuated the usual stereotype of violent elections that threaten peace, stability and democratisation.
They also presented doubts about some incumbents’ legitimacy to rule.
Unfulfilled expectations
There were high expectations about the impending polls early in 2015.
First, they were expected to continue the 1990s trend of further democratisation but with the hope that they would comply with international and African Union standards. Such elections must have integrity, be free, fair and reflect the wishes of the electorate.
Zambia’s presidential elections early in 2015 following the death of President Michael Sataprovided some interesting lessons. The opposition claim that the election results did not reflect the will of the people.
The process therefore remains incomplete. Zambians will hold presidential elections followed by parliamentary and local government polls in August.
Second, Africa’s 2015 elections were expected to consolidate democracy at least in countries that now hold regular polls.
And thirdly, the 2015 elections were also expected to help produce leaders with greater legitimacy and accountability.
Perhaps not surprisingly, Ethiopia, Burundi and the DRC produced results where the pendulum swung towards questionable and mediocre ends contrary to election best practices. Thus, this expectation remains unfulfilled.
Ethiopia’s election results suggested a landslide victory for its governing party despite opposition allegations of irregularities. Such scenarios usually create legitimacy crises and may undermine government’s accountability.
For Burundi, the current turmoil is traceable to its questionable elections after ignoring advice that they be postponed to allow for a more conducive atmosphere. The subsequent polls were boycotted by the opposition. They were also shunned by African and international observers.
Third term machinations
Admittedly, citizens have a right to propose constitutional amendments to allow leaders to govern for as long as electorates want. But the tendency by some leaders to extend terms by manipulating national constitutions weakens democratisation and constitutionalism.
President Pierre Nkurunziza’s amendment of Burundi’s constitution and his decision to run for a disputed third term is a case in point.
The era of military coups, dictatorship and authoritarianism might be declining. But leaders who resort to manipulating electoral and constitutional mechanisms and intimidating citizens to prolong their stay in power pose new challenges.
Research suggests that Africa’s elections are struggling to enhance its democratic trajectory. Examining the 2015 elections in Lesotho, Burundi, Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Niger, Sudan, Togo, Benin, Comoros and Egypt hardly inspires confidence. This does not augur well for Africa’s 2016 polls, nor future elections.
Kealeboga J Maphunye: Wiphold-Brigalia Bam Chair in Electoral Democracy in Africa, University of South Africa
This article was first published in The Conversation
All elections are important, but in some countries they carry particular weight. Key ones coming up are:
Senatorial, state and federal constituency elections in Nigeria. In Africa’s most populous nation elections can serve as a yardstick for advancing electoral democracy. This year’s elections are expected to lead to further governance reforms. They follow last year’s presidential poll which ushered in a new government.
Burkina Faso also experienced fundamental change in 2015 with the departure of President Blaise Compaore. The change must be consolidated with electoral participation of citizens and normalisation of politics in soon-to-be-held municipal elections.
Elections in the Central African Republic will be closely watched. They present an opportunity for stabilising a country that has experienced conflict.
Zambia’s situation is unique. Its recent elections led to a change of government through the ballot — a rare phenomenon in African politics. Presidential and general elections are due in August.
Uganda’s presidential poll will undoubtedly test President Yoweri Museveni’s entrenchment of power. Uganda will face the challenge of adhering to international and African Union election standards by ensuring level playing fields for all candidates.
The DRC presidential election set for November will also be scrutinised because of previous violence and the country’s propensity for instability.
Ghana’s general elections in November might provide lessons on how to trust in the power of the ballot and run elections peacefully. But its leadership faces severe constraints given that the economy is in the doldrums. It has had to turn to the IMF for assistance.
South Africa will arguably hold its most important municipal elections since 1994. To be held between May and August, the elections will test the popularity of the governing African National Congress. Signs are its support is falling in some municipalities.
Elections in the coming year will be held as economic growth shows signs of slowing in Africa. Tougher economic times might heighten electoral stakes.
The good and the bad of 2015
In 2015 almost 20 African countries held municipal, regional, general, presidential elections and by-elections. Two referenda were also held in Rwanda and the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville).
Rwanda’s citizens apparently voted overwhelmingly in favour of extending President Paul Kagame’s term of office, possibly until 2034. The referendum ostensibly suggests that the incumbent respects the popular will by subjecting the term limit to the vote.
The Republic of Congo’s President Dennis Sassou Nguesso also called a referendum to amend the presidential term and age limits, a move rejected by opposition parties. He thus joined African leaders who devise innovative means to cling to power while opposing the provisions of the African Charter on democracy, elections and governance.
But how significant are elections in Africa?
Regular changes of government through free, fair and democratic elections that reflect the wishes of the majority of voters are critical for democratisation.
The 2015 polls could tempt us to perceive elections as a reliable measure of democratisation. But 2015 presented mixed opportunities and drawbacks for democratisation. A major drawback is that some leaders clung to power and elections simply became rubber stamping exercises for the incumbents. This happened in the DRC, Rwanda, Congo (Brazzavile) and Gabon.
Elections are an essential component of democratisation, but other more important measures include:
narrowing the rich-poor gap,
improving living standards and promoting active citizenship,
freedom of expression and media,
respect for human rights and rule of law, and
accountable public representatives.
Isolated successes were registered in last year’s elections. Some countries for once conducted polls acceptable to local opposition parties, civil society and domestic and international observers. Fewer incidents of violence were seen. Tanzania was a particular case in point.
But, nothing spectacular emerged from Africa’s 2015 elections. Some polls actually perpetuated the usual stereotype of violent elections that threaten peace, stability and democratisation.
They also presented doubts about some incumbents’ legitimacy to rule.
Unfulfilled expectations
There were high expectations about the impending polls early in 2015.
First, they were expected to continue the 1990s trend of further democratisation but with the hope that they would comply with international and African Union standards. Such elections must have integrity, be free, fair and reflect the wishes of the electorate.
Zambia’s presidential elections early in 2015 following the death of President Michael Sataprovided some interesting lessons. The opposition claim that the election results did not reflect the will of the people.
The process therefore remains incomplete. Zambians will hold presidential elections followed by parliamentary and local government polls in August.
Second, Africa’s 2015 elections were expected to consolidate democracy at least in countries that now hold regular polls.
And thirdly, the 2015 elections were also expected to help produce leaders with greater legitimacy and accountability.
Perhaps not surprisingly, Ethiopia, Burundi and the DRC produced results where the pendulum swung towards questionable and mediocre ends contrary to election best practices. Thus, this expectation remains unfulfilled.
Ethiopia’s election results suggested a landslide victory for its governing party despite opposition allegations of irregularities. Such scenarios usually create legitimacy crises and may undermine government’s accountability.
For Burundi, the current turmoil is traceable to its questionable elections after ignoring advice that they be postponed to allow for a more conducive atmosphere. The subsequent polls were boycotted by the opposition. They were also shunned by African and international observers.
Third term machinations
Admittedly, citizens have a right to propose constitutional amendments to allow leaders to govern for as long as electorates want. But the tendency by some leaders to extend terms by manipulating national constitutions weakens democratisation and constitutionalism.
President Pierre Nkurunziza’s amendment of Burundi’s constitution and his decision to run for a disputed third term is a case in point.
The era of military coups, dictatorship and authoritarianism might be declining. But leaders who resort to manipulating electoral and constitutional mechanisms and intimidating citizens to prolong their stay in power pose new challenges.
Research suggests that Africa’s elections are struggling to enhance its democratic trajectory. Examining the 2015 elections in Lesotho, Burundi, Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Niger, Sudan, Togo, Benin, Comoros and Egypt hardly inspires confidence. This does not augur well for Africa’s 2016 polls, nor future elections.
Kealeboga J Maphunye: Wiphold-Brigalia Bam Chair in Electoral Democracy in Africa, University of South Africa
This article was first published in The Conversation
Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Central African Republic: Court annuls vote
[ Jean-Louis Gondamoyen Andres R Martinez, Bloomberg] The Central African Republic’s constitutional court upheld the results of the first round of presidential elections last month, while annulling the legislative vote because of “numerous irregularities.”
A vote to choose lawmakers will have to be carried out again, Zacharie Ndouba, the head of the court, told reporters in the capital, Bangui, on Monday. The court rejected complaints of fraud made by five out of 30 candidates in the presidential election because they didn’t provide evidence, Ndouba said.
The war-torn nation held presidential and legislative elections on Dec. 30. The constitutional court was to validate the results that had been announced by the electoral authority within 15 days of the vote, but asked for more time because of the large number of complaints and objections it had received.
The Central African Republic will hold a presidential runoff on Jan. 31 after none of the candidates in the diamond-rich nation garnered more than half of the votes. Former Prime Minister Anicet-Georges Dologuele got the most support, followed by Faustin-Archange Touadera, who also previously served as prime minister.
Bloomberg
A vote to choose lawmakers will have to be carried out again, Zacharie Ndouba, the head of the court, told reporters in the capital, Bangui, on Monday. The court rejected complaints of fraud made by five out of 30 candidates in the presidential election because they didn’t provide evidence, Ndouba said.
The war-torn nation held presidential and legislative elections on Dec. 30. The constitutional court was to validate the results that had been announced by the electoral authority within 15 days of the vote, but asked for more time because of the large number of complaints and objections it had received.
The Central African Republic will hold a presidential runoff on Jan. 31 after none of the candidates in the diamond-rich nation garnered more than half of the votes. Former Prime Minister Anicet-Georges Dologuele got the most support, followed by Faustin-Archange Touadera, who also previously served as prime minister.
Bloomberg
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