The political party Nidaa Tounes has won 85 seats in the
newly-elected 217-member Tunisian parliament. This compares with the 69 seats
won by the Islamist party Ennahdha, which after the last election in 2011 held
the majority in the Constituent Assembly.
The elections on October 26th were welcomed by most Arab,
African and international media observers who saw in them a model of democracy
for a region torn by strife and dictatorship.
Lebanese columnist Rami Khouri described the elections as
"the most significant domestic and national political development in the
modern history of the Arab world".
Despite social unrest and severe economic challenges,
Tunisia's political factions were able to agree and compromise for the sake of
national unity, "in sharp contrast with the hysteria and hallucinatory
emotional excesses" in Egypt where the army overthrew the elected Islamist
president to great popular acclaim, Khouri wrote in the Daily Star.
Writing in The Guardian, Monica Marks depicted them as the
"second genuinely competitive, peaceful elections since 2011".
However, such optimistic analysis cannot hide rising fears
of a regress towards the same authoritarian and corrupt practices of the
pre-2011 history of the country.
Is Nidaa a neo-RCD?
Since its creation in 2012, Nidaa Tounes has opened its
doors to the most influential and most corrupt Ben Ali-era figures. Abderrahim
Zouari, Kamal Morjane, Kamal Nabli, Hamed Karoui, Mohamed Ghariani and Essebsi
himslef and many others have recast themselves as technocrats untainted by the
corruption of Ben Ali's regime, and possessing the administrative skills to run
the country.
Nidaa Tounes is led by Beji Caid Essebsi, an 88-year-old
veteran of both the Bourguiba and Ben Ali eras. The party drew from Ben Ali
officials, smaller leftist and Ben Ali-era parties, and leftist union leaders
to form a front that opposed the first Ennahdha-led governments constituted
after the 2011 elections.
Nidaa has also won a great deal of votes from former
supporters of Ben Ali's party, RCD (Rassemblement Constitutionnel
Démocratique). Although many of Ben Ali and RCD's prominent figures have run in
these elections for their own, partisan lists, they ordered their fans and
members to vote for Nidaa. This explains why the recycled RCD parties
(Mubadara, the Destourien Movement etc.) won very few seats.
RCD is back!
The last-minute arrangements that lead to Nidaa's victory
are considered by many Tunisians, even those who did not vote for Ennahdha, as
an RCD come-back.
The Economist said in an editorial that "Despite its
victory, Nidaa Tounes has not been able entirely to shake off the reputation
that it represents an attempt by members of the previous ruling party, the RCD,
to regain influence". It states that as a single-party state, the RCD
"built clientelist relations running from taxi-drivers and corner-shop
owners, to non-governmental organisations, lawyers, senior civil servants
and--importantly for its funding--business people".
Led by RCD, the Ben Ali regime was famous for its
corruption, systematic torture of opposition figures and many other Human
Rights violations during its 23 years in power. Many of Ben Ali's first-rank
officials are involved in torture and corruption issues, from which they were
miraculously acquitted by Tunisian courts after 2011.
While recognizing that Nidaa Tounes was "the political
refuge for many ex-members of RCD - the party of the dictator, Zine El Abidine
Ben Ali", Open Democracy reminds us that Tunisia's National Constituent
Assembly "failed to ban its members from political life".
RCD has always been a headache for Tunisia's nascent
democracy. The party-state ruled Tunisia for more than 20 years and despite its
"legal" dismissal in 2011, it has succeeded in remaining strong and
has profited from the "mercy" of post-Revolution Tunisia. Helped by
the judicial system they themselves developed, RCD's dominant figures have
escaped jail. Their supporters have continued to dominate the political,
social, and economic life of the country.
A World Bank report, published end of March 2014, shows how
Ben Ali's regime and his RCD propaganda arm tailored laws to enrich their clan,
family at the country's expense.
The tri-partite "troika" that governed Tunisia in
2012 and 2013 was either helpless or too fearful to take the necessary legal
and popular steps aimed at banning the Ben Ali clan from any political
activity. Although largely supported by the people of Tunisia, and despite
being a major goal of the Revolution, the so-called Political Exclusion Law was
finally not amended.
The result is this blatant come-back of the old RCD old
guard, allied with Nidaa Tounes and some other extreme left-wingers.
Not only are they back on the political and public scene,
five other former ministers are also running for the position of President of
the Republic, to be elected later this month. This comeback is now being
decried by many Tunisians, including some of those who voted for Nidaa under
the pretext of "punishing" Ennahdha and its allies.
One reason why corruption has increased in Tunisia during
the transition period is that the post-Revolution rulers have failed to hold
the Ben Ali clan accountable and to deal with the very corrupt RCD machine
implanted in all the components of the State, from public services to
education, health sector, business and the media.
The victory of Nidaa Tounes will allow Ben Ali's clan even
greater power and to gain access to even more critical and strategic positions
of the State.
Very few Tunisians, including those who are fans of or close
to Nidaa Tounes-cum-RCD, believe that those who exploited and tortured
Tunisians during the Ben Ali era will suddenly become honest, patriotic and
reliable.
RCD is the antidote to Democracy. Simply saying the name, in
French or in Arabic (تجمُّع),
terrifies many Tunisians.
This former party's officials and grassroots, counted in
hundreds of thousands, have greedily profited from the country's resources. For
decades, they usurped huge undeserved prerogatives and wealth; they ill-treated
dissidents and innocent citizens. RCD becoming, overnight, 'democrats' is
something of a joke.
Are there reasons to fear for Democracy?
Some politicians and activists think a serious backward step
is today impossible. They argue that the Constitution and other newly-created
institutions such as the Truth and Dignity Committee, the Electoral Committee,
the independent broadcast media regulation body (HAICA), the Law for
Transitional Justice etc. are a rampart to a possible comeback of dictatorship.
To what extent this is true? Of the 1.2 million people (out
of 12 million Tunisians, 5.3 million electors) who voted for Nidaa, how many
really trust those who served Ben Ali? Didn't the last elections show that some
Tunisians are ready to cast aside dignity and freedom in order to resist any
change in society or simply to counter one political group or another?
On the ground, neo-RCDists have shown the opposite. A few
hours after the results of the elections were known, Tunisia's old-new rulers
have been betrayed by their own declarations and reactions..
They started their reign by an infraction to the
Constitution itself which stipulates that the incumbent President (in this case
Moncef Marzouki) officially invites the party who won the parliamentary
majority to constitute the new government. But the leadership of Nidaa refused.
In a clear infringement of the Constitution, they said they will wait until a
new president is elected.
And Essebsi, Nidaa's leader, has called upon the presidents
of the Republic (Marzouki) and of the National Assembly (Mustapha Ben Jaafar)
to resign, which is another infringement of the Constitution.
Nidaa officials and their allies have always declared that
the Egyptian scenario (the army taking over power from an elected government),
would be excellent news for Tunisia.
Is the threat justified?
Any setback for Tunisia's recent democratic achievements
will mean a threat to freedom of the press, to transparency and good
governance, to political plurality.
Civil Society, highly and positively developed throughout
the last four years, will suffer a serious hit. Activists and Human Rights
defenders will be in danger, as they were under the days of ben Ali.
In a scenario that would recall what is happening in Egypt,
the remnants of Ben Ali's police-state are now likely to crack down on serious
Civil Society organizations, Human Rights defenders and any form of activism.
In this respect, Ben Ali's legion lack neither experience nor expertise.
Many Arab and international observers and decision-makers
have turned a blind eye on this sad eventuality, under the excuse of opposing
the Islamists in power or barring the way to the flourishing of "political
Islam" in the Arab world. They will now have to face the new, very
probable, reality: the comeback of dictatorship.
The West today knows very well that a situation similar to
that before 2011 not only constitutes a danger to Tunisia and its neighbors
but, in a region suffering from religious and ethnic extremism, a new
dictatorship in Tunisia will be an additional source of terrorism and unrest
for the international community to deal with.
But will Tunisians allow this setback? And will the world's
powers remain silent in front of a possible comeback of despotism and a
police-state? And who knows if, and when, Tunisians will take their anger to
the streets again. In that case, the second wave of the Tunisian revolution
will no longer smell of Jasmine.
By By Mourad Tayeb
Allafrica.com
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