Here is a statement, issued Jan. 20 in Abuja, from the NDI
and International Republican Institute joint pre-election assessment mission
for Nigeria's presidential election. The delegation visited Nigeria from Jan.
15-20. Its goals were to:
assess the current
political and electoral
environment in the lead-up to the February 14 presidential election;
assess preparations for the presidential election and offer
recommendations to enhance citizen confidence in the process and mitigate
violence; and
demonstrate international support for Nigeria’s
democratization process.
The delegation comprised: Ambassador (rtd) George Moose,
former U.S. assistant secretary of state for African Affairs, and vice chairman
of the board of directors of the U.S. Institute of Peace; Brigalia Bam, former
chairperson of the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa; Hon.
Patrick Muyaya, member of parliament, the Democratic Republic of Congo; Pauline
Baker, former president of the Fund for Peace; Michael Bratton, distinguished
professor of political science and African studies at Michigan State
University; Robert Lloyd, professor of international relations at Pepperdine
University, and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center;
Christopher Fomunyoh, senior associate and regional director for Central and
West Africa at NDI; and Gretchen Birkle, regional director for Africa at IRI.
The delegation met
with the chairman
and senior officials
of the Independent
National Electoral
Commission (INEC), one presidential
candidate, senior representatives of
another candidate, leaders of political
parties, civic organizations,
professional associations and religious
bodies, as well as legislators and senior government officials.
The delegation expresses
its deep appreciation to
everyone with whom
it met for
welcoming the mission
and for sharing freely their views on the electoral
process.
The delegation notes that the 2015 presidential race is
likely to be Nigeria’s most competitive election since the transition from
military to civilian rule in 1999. The mission would like to underscore the
growing and often expressed determination of Nigerians to ensure that the
election is peaceful and credible through all phases of the process, including
during the campaign period, on election day and in the post-election period
after the release of final election results. The team observed that while the
election management body – INEC – has undertaken several innovative steps to
reinforce the integrity of the electoral system, information about these
concrete steps is not widely understood by other stakeholders, many of whom
stressed the need for further efforts to enhance citizen confidence and
participation in the process. In the spirit of international solidarity, the
delegation offers recommendations on steps that should be taken to enhance such
confidence and contribute to violence-free elections in February 2015.
Both NDI and IRI have deployed international election
observation missions to every presidential election in Nigeria since 1999. The
two Institutes are nonpartisan, nongovernmental organizations that support and
strengthen democratic institutions and practices worldwide. Both NDI and IRI
will deploy international observers to the February 14 presidential poll.
CONTEXT: MAJOR ISSUES AFFECTING THE OVERALL POLITICAL
ENVIRONMENT
The delegation found that the views of most Nigerians with
regards to the upcoming polls are influenced by past issues of national
significance. These include:
History of past elections. Since the end of military rule,
Nigeria has conducted four electoral contests – in 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011.
The successful conduct of the 2011 elections marked a turning point in the
country’s democratic trajectory, as it contrasted sharply with the electoral
mismanagement and widespread fraud of previous polls. Even then, violence in
some northern cities in the immediate aftermath of the announcement of election
results in 2011 resulted in over 800 deaths and tremendous destruction of
property. In the public’s mind, perpetrators of election-related violence
and/or electoral fraud from 2011 have not been prosecuted. Furthermore, the
delegates heard that the failure to create the Electoral Offences Commission
recommended by the “Justice Muhammed Uwais Electoral Reforms Panel” of 2007,
and advocated for even by INEC, calls into question the commitment of the
country’s political leaders to curb or deter fraud, violence and other criminal
activity around elections.
Perceptions of political power in Nigeria. Access to public
resources by government officials at the federal and state levels, and the
abuse of same by some office holders intensifies competition for political
power. The “winner-takes-all” frame of reference in the Nigerian political
system exacerbates exclusion and inequality while ethnic, religious and
regional identity is frequently manipulated by politicians for personal gain.
Many political elites are alleged to dispense public resources and services
through patronage networks that cater less to the broader populace and more to
a select few. Many of the persons from civil society and political parties with
whom the delegation met agreed that the patronage system starts with weak
democratic norms and processes within political parties. For example, they
point to the lack of transparency in candidate nominations or party primaries,
citing cases in which the candidate preferred by party leaders is given the
nomination regardless of votes cast in the primaries. As noted by a highly
respected Nigerian democrat, “Once an unpopular candidate emerges through this
‘selection process,’ the leadership that anointed that candidate then has no
choice but to use fraudulent means to help the candidate win.” Given that party
leadership in Nigeria is mostly male, this process also discourages the
meaningful participation of women in politics and their access to positions of
leadership.
Flashpoints of insecurity and political polarization. The
2015 elections are taking place in a difficult security environment, as an
insurgency led by the extremist group “Boko Haram” continues to kill innocent
citizens and attack villages and military installations in the North Eastern
geopolitical zone of the country. The assessment team learned that at various
times, debates over the Boko Haram insurgency have taken a partisan tone, with
accusations of complacency and complicity levelled against each other by ruling
and main opposition party members. Media reports allege an increase in the
circulation of small arms and light weapons in some areas, notably parts of the
Niger Delta, while intercommunal violence between herdsmen and farmers
continues in the Middle Belt. Overall, on the eve of the February elections,
the country is fairly polarized along partisan, regional and religious lines.
Some Nigerians are fearful that should extraordinary steps not be taken to
temper partisan rhetoric and stigmatization, violence could erupt in the
strongholds of whichever candidate loses the presidential race.
Declining oil prices. Although the decline in world oil
prices has not yet become a matter of national debate, many analysts told the
delegation that the effects of this decline on the country’s foreign reserves,
its economy and its national budget could further exacerbate tensions.
Emergence of a strong opposition party. The 2015 polls will
likely be the most competitive elections since the return to civilian rule in
1999. While the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has dominated national
politics since that time, the emergence of the All Progressives Congress (APC)
following the merger in 2013 of several opposition parties, has created what
many Nigerians now see as a viable alternative. Several former PDP stalwarts,
including state governors and national legislators, have crossed over to the
APC. For the first time in recent Nigerian history, two closely matched
contenders for the presidential race have emerged – incumbent President
Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP and General (rtd) Muhammadu Buhari of the APC.
Closely contested races are also projected for the national legislature,
governorships, and state houses of assembly. As of the time of the delegation’s
visit, significant numbers of supporters of the two frontrunners in the
presidential race believe strongly that their candidate would win.
CHALLENGES SPECIFIC TO THE 2015 POLLS
The impact of Boko Haram. Ongoing terrorist attacks and
killings of Nigerians by Boko Haram have disrupted daily life in Borno State
and several local government areas (LGAs) in Yobe and Adamawa States. The
presence of Boko Haram poses a political risk in that not conducting polls in
significant parts of a region viewed as the stronghold of one of the contesting
parties, even if for reasons of insecurity, would mean the disenfranchisement
of a large number of voters. This would well call into question the legitimacy
of the election in the eyes of the population, not only in the affected states
but more widely. According to INEC, the three states have a cumulative total of
approximately 4.5 million registered voters (Adamawa 1.5, Borno 1.9 and Yobe
1.1 million).
Internally displaced persons (IDPs). In the north east
geopolitical zone, a number of LGAs are inaccessible because of insecurity
caused by Boko Haram. The presence and de facto control of territory in these
states by Boko Haram has resulted in the internal displacement of hundreds of
thousands of people (IDPs). Advocacy for steps to be taken to facilitate IDP
voting continues to grow, as INEC pursues its consultations with political
parties and other election stakeholders on ways to facilitate such IDP voting.
Nigerians recognize that it is imperative that their fellow citizens already
traumatized by terrorist attacks be afforded the opportunity to exercise their
constitutional rights.
Miscommunication. The delegation noted that a number of
positive steps taken by INEC to enhance the integrity of the electoral system
were either misinterpreted or misunderstood – sometimes willfully – by some
segments of society. For example, while INEC introduced a biometric registry
and machine-readable permanent voter cards (PVCs) to curb fraud and duplicate
registrations, some critics of INEC argue that there are no legal provisions for
INEC to require a PVC (in lieu of a temporary voting card), and that the
biometric features of the PVC go beyond minimum requirements of Nigerian law.
Similarly, INEC explains the reduction in the number of voters in the voter
registry from 73 million in 2011 to 68.8 million in 2014 as a result of steps
taken to expunge from the registry double registrations and underage and
deceased voters. However, some critics of INEC are concerned that the new
figure does not reflect the growing population of the country.
According to a recently released Gallup poll[1], confidence
in elections in Nigeria has eroded significantly since 2011: whereas 51 percent
of Nigerians expressed confidence in the honesty of elections in 2011, that
number declined to 13 percent in 2014. A number of Nigerians with whom the
delegation met expressed concern that insufficient communication by the
election management body – and disparagement of INEC’s efforts by some of its
critics – could undermine the efficient administration of the polls.
The delegation concluded that there is a paramount need for
more, and more regular, updates and increased service announcements to the
public regarding progress in election preparations, including with regards to
the procurement and distribution of PVCs and other materials, to dissipate
mistrust among citizens.
Election administration. The delegation is concerned that
millions of permanent voter cards (PVCs) have not yet been distributed by INEC.
Although INEC plans to move the distribution of PVCs from the LGA level down to
the level of wards (which are smaller units under the LGAs and closer to the
polling points), that exercise has not started in all states. Moreover, some
Nigerians stated that in a number of states, the distribution exercise has
repeatedly been postponed in some locations, leading to further erosion of
trust in INEC. Some Nigerians are still unsure whether a voter without a PVC,
but whose name is on the register, will be allowed to vote on election day and
what arrangements will be put in place to adjudicate such matters.
Similarly, INEC brands the voter card readers (VCRs), a
handheld machine that will be used to scan the biometric voter cards, as an
innovation in Nigeria that would strengthen the integrity of the voting
process; however, the procurement of the VCRs is still underway and not all
card readers have been delivered to INEC. INEC is confident the delivery will
be made and has issued guidelines to address card reader malfunction. INEC also
views the card reader as a confidence building measure that would allow the
commission to track the number of accredited voters and make sure they match
the figures to be reported on the results sheet. Yet, some Nigerians are
apprehensive about what would happen should the remaining VCRs not be delivered
on time, or should many of these new machines malfunction on election day.
While INEC has specific plans for recruiting and deploying
ad hoc poll workers that would include current and former members of the
National Youth Service Corps and students in tertiary education institutions,
some members of the public are concerned that training of these workers has yet
to begin.
Violence in pre-election period. The delegation heard
reports of recent election-related violence in Jos, Plateau State and Port
Harcourt, Rivers State, and the use of inflammatory messages by some party
officials and supporters, sometimes delivered through print and social media.
Some interlocutors alleged that in response to these acts of violence and
utterances, certain elements of the security services have not conducted
themselves evenhandedly. Security services interviewed by the delegation denied
this allegation. Lack of confidence in the security services, were it to
persist, could as just one example provide an excuse for vigilante activity, which would then raise the risk of
spiraling partisan violence at the state and local levels. The delegation
learned that unlike during past elections when interagency collaboration among
security services was a challenge, INEC has created and co-chairs with the
national security adviser, the “Interagency Consultative Committee on Election
Security” (ICCES), to facilitate seamless coordination. ICCES committees have
been created at the state and LGA levels as well.
Despite political polarization, many Nigerians are hopeful
that the political situation of the country will not degenerate as a result of
the polls. There is a very significant pool of Nigerians within and outside of
political parties (what some called the ‘third voice’) which “sees the larger
interests of the country and votes for Nigeria.” This ‘moderate center’ should
be encouraged to speak up and help restrain more extreme positions in the lead
up to the elections, as well as in the post-election period. A greater focus on
issue-based campaigns and the substantive difference between party platforms
would enrich the political discourse and allow voters to make informed choices
on election day.
Risk that candidates may not accept the outcome of
meaningful polls. Many Nigerians believe that having two strong and closely
matched parties in competition provides an incentive for the effective
deployment of party agents by political parties so as to minimize or deter
fraud while increasing confidence in the electoral outcome. Others are more
skeptical and argue that the losers in close races may reject an unfavorable
outcome. The delegation urges candidates and parties to respect electoral
outcomes within the framework of Nigerian electoral law. The delegation
applauds the signing on January 14 of a pledge by 11 of the 14 presidential
candidates which exhorts Nigerians to reject incitement to violence before,
during and after the election. The delegation strongly supports this “Abuja
Accord” – signed in the presence of former United Nations Secretary General
Kofi Annan – which can serve as the foundation for a broad campaign for
violence-free elections. Nigerian civic and political leaders with whom the
delegation met agreed on the urgency of implementing the Accord and ensuring
that its provisions are communicated to party supporters at grassroots level
across the country. In the words of one political leader with whom the
delegation met, “Leaders have to drum [the Accord] into the ears of their
supporters.”
NIGERIAN LED INITIATIVES TO ADDRESS THESE CHALLENGES
Despite the challenges listed above, the 2015 polls provide
an opportunity for political parties, INEC, the government, media and civil
society to build upon and expand the advances from 2011 to ensure peaceful and
credible elections. Many Nigerians take pride in the country being Africa’s
most populous nation, endowed with vast reserves of oil and minerals, fertile
land, and a resilient population, and recognize that the country has the
capacity for enormous prosperity and regional leadership. The delegation noted
a strong commitment by INEC and multiple civil society organizations to enhance
citizen confidence and participation in the election as well as mitigate
violence around the polls.
Non-violence campaigns. Nigeria’s vibrant civil society has
been a driving force in the promotion of an inclusive, transparent and peaceful
electoral process. Many prominent individuals and organizations are
contributing substantively to the promotion of peaceful participation, urging
Nigerians to exercise their democratic rights and civic responsibility, and to
ensure that their votes count. For example, the 2face Foundation, sponsored by
the musician 2face Idibia, and Youngstars Foundation have launched “Vote Not
Fight: Election no be war,” as a nationwide youth get-out-the-vote (GOTV)
campaign. At GOTV events and concerts, youth sign a “Vote Not Fight” nonviolence
pledge. Other initiatives include: Enough is Enough’s RSVP, or Register,
Select, Vote and Protect, a peaceful election participation campaign; Open
Society Initiative for West Africa’s (OSIWA) Situation Room; the Dreams4Naija
Campaign; the CLEEN Foundation’s violence monitoring campaign; the Foundation
for Partnership Initiatives in the Niger Delta’s (PIND) Partners for Peace
(P4P) project; as well as the National Bar Association’s and Labor Union voter
education and awareness series.
Voter education. Many Nigerian civil society groups are
engaged in creative initiatives to educate voters about the electoral process,
including initiatives such as: the 9jaVoter project by West African NGO Network
(WANGONeT), which has produced a mobile voter education app to increase youth
participation; Human Rights Monitor Nigeria, which is distributing election
information cards and posters; the Nigerian Women's Trust Fund, whose
multimedia campaign focuses on the benefits of increased women’s political
participation; the women’s political education sessions conducted by the
non-partisan Women in Politics Forum to increase women’s chances to run
successful campaigns for office; the Youth Alliance on Constitution and
Electoral Reform (YACORE) and its awareness campaign to educate northern youths
on non-violence in electoral participation ahead of the 2015 polls; and the “On
the Road to 2015” voter education radio program conducted by the Partners for
Electoral Reforms (PER).
Presidential debates. The Nigerian media plans to organize
candidate debates to include presidential and vice-presidential debates in the
coming weeks. If successful, these debates would send a message to Nigerians
across the country that competition for high office is a debate of ideas and
should not result in violence. The optics of the two main contenders on the
same stage and engaged in meaningful discussion of issues pertinent to the
electorate would elevate political discourse, assuage concerns of excessive
polarization and enhance the possibility that the winner would be gracious in
victory and the loser accept the outcome.
The Abuja Accord. This agreement, signed by 11 of 14
presidential candidates, commits the signatories to run issue-based campaigns
at national, state and local government levels; to refrain from violent acts
and inflammatory speech before, during and after the elections; and to speak
out against any such violence. The Accord reinforces the inter-party Code of
Conduct renewed by political parties in 2013. The Accord is widely hailed as an
encouraging development that provides civil society, the media and the
international community with a yardstick against which to hold candidates and
parties accountable for their conduct in violence-free polls.
INEC communication. INEC has created a media corps as a
mechanism for sharing information with the media and the public at large, and
should enhance its effectiveness and frequency in the remaining weeks leading
to election day.
Religious leaders. Highly respected leaders, such as the
Sultan of Sokoto and the Cardinal of Abuja, have launched the Nigeria
Inter-Faith Initiative for Peace, which aims to mitigate the negative impact of
polarization along religious lines. This and similar initiatives should be
encouraged to expand their mission to include appealing to their followers to
take actions to contribute to peaceful polls.
Citizen monitoring of electoral processes. Drawing upon
lessons learned and best practices acquired over the
last four elections, citizen monitoring
groups continue to play a critical
role in providing
Nigerians with accurate information on
the integrity of the electoral
process. Their programs and activities
deter and detect
irregularities during voter
registration, in the pre-election period, on
election day, and
in the post-election
period. One civil
society network, the Transition
Monitoring Group (TMG) – a
coalition of over 400 civil society organizations – will, for the second time
in a presidential election, use statistical
random sampling methodology or
‘Quick Count’ to monitor election day processes and to verify the accuracy
of official voting
results.
RECOMMENDATIONS
The delegation believes
that with sufficient
political will, many
of the immediate challenges can
be addressed in ways that enhance
citizen confidence and participation in the election and hence mitigate
violence during and after the polls.
In the spirit
of international cooperation,
the delegation therefore offers the
following recommendations for
review and consideration:
Confidence building measures. There is a perceived gap between those
election preparations that have been undertaken by INEC and what some
stakeholders understand to be the status of election preparation. This miscommunication is contributing to
heightened tension around the election process. All parties should ensure that
citizens have the knowledge and information they need to vote, and that
citizens have confidence their vote will contribute to a credible electoral
process.
Communications
INEC should improve its communication strategy with voters,
to include, for example, daily press briefings and more frequent public service
announcements, including in local languages, in order to bridge any
miscommunication on electoral preparedness and voting procedures.
INEC should undertake a concerted voter education effort to
demonstrate to the public the use of new technology such as the PVCs and card
readers.
INEC should better inform stakeholders and make publicly
available contingency plans to expeditiously repair or replace technical
broken-down equipment. They should also inform the public in advance of
procedures such as those that relate to the handling of voters who appear on
the voter list but do not have a PVC. It is important that the INEC response to
these anticipated problems be uniform across the country.
INEC should commit to make public in its final results the
results from each polling unit. Making the commitment public prior to election
day would add transparency to the process and enhance citizen confidence in
election results.
Political parties and candidates should focus on issue-based
campaigns that address national priorities such as security, the economy and
governance.
Civil society should continue monitoring the election
process and advocating for improvements in its integrity.
The media should elevate civil discourse and report
accurately, responsibly and professionally, in line with the media code of
ethics, in order to contribute to raising voter awareness and education.
The international community should continue to monitor and
report publicly on the actions of individuals who violate the spirit of free
and fair elections before, during and after the election.
Election administration
INEC should urgently complete the distribution of PVCs to
get them in the hands of the voters. INEC should also urgently complete the
procurement of card readers, and communicate relevant information on these
issues to the electorate as soon as possible in advance of election day.
INEC should accelerate recruitment and training of polling
officials.
INEC should explore ways to increase voting by Internally
Displaced Persons (IDPs) and ensure that properly registered IDPs are not
disenfranchised.
INEC should make maximum efforts and take concrete steps to
avoid the disenfranchisement of sizeable populations in LGAs in north eastern
states impacted by the Boko Haram insurgency. The government should make all
possible efforts to provide the security and support necessary for the conduct
of elections in those areas. INEC should facilitate consensus building around
these efforts among all stakeholders.
INEC should fully implement its gender policy that fosters
gender equity in the recruitment and deployment of poll workers.
Political parties
Political parties and candidates should focus on issue-based
campaigns that address national priorities, such as security, the economy and
governance.
Political parties should train and deploy party agents to
all polling sites to facilitate evidence-based monitoring of voting activities
and documentation of any irregularities that may occur.
Political parties should adhere to the rule of law and
respect the INEC guidelines for political parties, specifically provisions that
deplore the use of violence and inciteful language.
Violence mitigation.
Many of the foregoing measures would contribute to mitigating violence.
In addition, the delegation recommends the following:
Government of Nigeria
The Government of Nigeria (GON) should reinforce security
measures within the framework of the law and without intimidation to facilitate
the conduct of polls in all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
The GON should reiterate to all security services their
constitutional obligation to be professional and impartial in guaranteeing
election security for all citizens.
Political parties
Political parties and candidates should actively undertake
voter and civic education so their supporters can be better informed and
conduct themselves peacefully before, during and after the polls.
Political parties and candidates should sensitize party
supporters at the grassroots level on the political party Code of Conduct and
provisions of the Abuja Accord and the commitment of candidates and party
leaders to avoid and reject violence.
Civil society
The delegation appeals to religious groups across
inter-denominational faiths, traditional and community leaders, media and civil
society organizations, including trade unions, youth and women’s organizations,
to launch a concerted and collective national movement for violence-free
elections.
The delegation urges contingency planning in the event of
post-election violence and encourages the creation of a network of agents of
peace across communities.
The international community
The international community should expand and intensify its
observation efforts to provide objective assessments of and recommendations on
the electoral process, prior, during and after the election.
The international community should more forcefully convey
its belief that election-related violence will have consequences for the
legitimacy of the election outcome.
International partners should intensify their efforts to
support the electoral process, including initiatives by Nigerian civil society.
NDI and IRI will continue
to observe the
electoral process and
will issue additional
statements as appropriate. NDI and IRI will deploy international
election observers to the February 14 presidential poll, and will cooperate
with other international observation missions
and nonpartisan election
observation efforts by
Nigerian citizen groups
in accordance with the Declaration of Principles and Nigerian law.
- The National Democratic Institute
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