This year, 11 countries across Africa are holding key
national elections, significant since it wasn’t too long ago that the vast
majority of the continent was run by a mix of military dictators and
“president-for-lifers.” And yet it is clear that the economic development
everyone is counting on will not be possible without political stability.
Indeed, even though few African countries have attained wide
recognition as full-fledged competitive democracies, investors are lining up.
According to the World Bank, foreign direct investment (FDI) grew 16% to a
“near-record $43 billion in 2013.”
The first major polls opened last week in Zambia, and Edgar
Lungu, leader of the ruling Patriotic Front party has been declared the winner
with 48.3% of the vote. It was a tight election, with him winning by just
27,000 votes. It’s among the six really worth watching closely over the next
year.
1. Country: Zambia
Population: 15 million
GDP: $26.8 billion
When: Jan 20
Who: The presidential by-election came 90 days after the
death of the populist Michael Sata in October. The race was down to two
front-runners. The ruling party’s Patriotic Front and current Defense Minister
Edgar Lungu has been declared the winner. He was challenged by the leader of
the opposition party United Party for National Development Hakainde Hichilema.
Why you need to pay attention: At the centre of the election
debate is the future of mining, the country’s biggest and most important
economic sector. The current Patriotic Front-led government’s institution of a
20% hike in mining royalties has raised concerns with investors. The opposition
has promised to roll back the tax rise.
What they’re saying: “It is going to be difficult for
whoever comes in. They are going to either have to backtrack on promises or, if
they go ahead with them, they will quickly see a lot of problems, which could
feed in to a weaker exchange rate, rising inflation and higher interest rates.”
– Tobias Rasmussen, the International Monetary Fund’s representative in Zambia.
2. Country: Nigeria
Population: 178.5 million.
GDP: $521.8 billion.
When: Feb 14
Who: The incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan has until
recent weeks been seen as favorite to retain power. However, retired general
and former head of state Muhammadu Buhari is presenting the most serious
challenge to the People’s Democratic Party’s (PDP) stranglehold on power since
the end of military rule in 1999.
Why you need to pay attention: Africa’s largest economy has
been struggling with high unemployment, plummeting oil prices, a devalued
currency, and mind-boggling corruption scandals. On top of that is the deadly
threat of Boko Haram, whose recent attack is feared to have left 2,000 people
dead. There’s a growing concern the Nigerian problem, thus far contained to the
northeast, will spread across the country and deeper into neighboring
countries.
What they’re saying: “I do not want him to grow up in a
country where brothers are killing themselves… where people cannot afford to
travel to parts of their country out of fear.” – Akin Oyebode, a finance
analyst and former soldier speaking of his 19-month-old son.
3. Country: Sudan
Population: 38.8 million.
GDP: $66.6 billion.
When: April 4
Who: The incumbent President Omar al-Bashir came to power in
a coup in 1989. The only sitting head of state with a standing warrant from the
International Criminal Court, due to alleged war crimes in Darfur, he had
indicated he would step down but changed his mind. The former Prime Minister
Sadiq Al-Mahdi is the leading opposition figure challenging al-Bashir for the
presidency.
Why you need to pay attention: Once Africa’s largest country
by land area, Sudan is holding its first election since parting ways with South
Sudan in 2011. But will the election be truly free and fair? The opposition
have said unless political freedoms and basic human rights are improved
elections will prove to be cosmetic. There’s increasing talk that they might
not take part in electoral process.
What they’re saying: “[T]he political parties should join
the free competition, be honest, clear and serious and avoid launching
prejudgments on the results of the elections before they are conducted.” –
president Omar al-Bashir
4. Country: Ethiopia
Population: 96.5 million.
GDP: $47.5 billion.
When: May 24th, 2015
Who: Hailemariam Desalegn, the incumbent prime minister who
inherited the post after the death of long-term leader Meles Zenawi, is
expected to easily secure victory. It is unclear who will challenge him for the
post, with the opposition recently suggesting that they are being blocked from
taking part in the process.
Why you need to pay attention: Ethiopia is one of the
fastest growing economies in Africa. However, it has an atrocious human rights
record and regularly imprisons journalists. In an ironic twist, some have
accused the country of leveraging its position as an important US ally in the
war on terrorism to avoid criticisms for some its egregious undermining of
political freedoms.
What they’re saying: “The reason why there’s so much
repression, the reason why there’s so much muzzling of the press, the reason
why the Ethiopian government is arresting opposition figures inside the country
is precisely because they know that this is a despised government. It cannot
last a day in an environment of freedom.” – Berhanu Nega, professor of
economics at Bucknell University and former leader of the Coalition for Unity
and Democracy in Ethiopia.
5. Country: Tanzania
Population: 50.8 million
GDP: $33.2 billion
When: October 2015
Who: The ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi, which has ruled
the country since independence in 1961, is expected to remain in power. The
internal party nomination for the presidency is the most open it has ever been.
Former prime minister Lowassa is considered a front-runner. But stiff
competition in the form of the current PM Mizengo Pinda, foreign minister
Bernard Membe and deputy minister of science and technology January Makamba
should keep things interesting. The opposition has said that they aim to unify
behind a single candidate with Wilbroad Slaa, the losing candidate in 2005,
likely to be the nominee.
Why you need to pay attention: The second biggest economy in
East Africa has enjoyed strong economic growth, averaging more than 6% annual
GDP growth in the last few years. It is a strong diplomatic and security ally
of the US as demonstrated by president Barack Obama choice of Tanzania as one
of the three countries he visited on the continent in 2013. An emerging oil and
gas economy, analysts argue, however, that the pace of reforms for a better
business environment has been slow.
What they’re saying: “One reason Tanzania has difficulties
attracting investment is the inefficiency of the government.” – Lu Youqing, the
Chinese ambassador.
6. Country: Burkina Faso
Population: 16.9 million
GDP: $11.6 billion
When: November, 2015
Who: Following the forced resignation of long-term President
Captain Blaise Compaoré by a popular uprising, the country has been governed by
a transitional government lead by the former foreign minister Michel Kafando.
It is not yet clear whether the 72-year old will run for the permanent role.
Compaore’s old party Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) will compete in
the elections. So too will other opposition parties.
Why you need to pay attention: This a chance for democracy
to be re-established in Burkina Faso following Compaore’s 27-year rule. Burkina
Faso is an important ally of the US and France in their fight against violent
extremists in the Sahel. The fifth largest gold producer on the continent,
analysts are curious to see whether the election will settle the uncertainty
that has gripped the country since October 2014.
What they’re saying: “The insurgency has restored dignity to
Burkina Faso. Our dear country will now know a before and an after October
31st, 2014.″ – Lieutenant-Colonel and current prime minister Yacouba Isaac Zida
who briefly assumed power in the aftermath of former president Blaise
Compaoré’s resignation.
-Quartz
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