Which scenario for presidential elections in Guinea?

A few months before the presidential election, tensions between majority and opposition will revive. With their share of challenges, invective and violence. Alpha, Cellou Sidya and other they manage to get along, as during the 2013 legislative? All hope is not lost ...

The Ebola outbreak last year, the political crisis this year ... The Guinea suffers, and the presidential election, the first round of which is set to 11 October , may be very tense. Originally the standoff between the government and the opposition, there are of course old conflict between the two dominant ethnic groups in the country - the Malinke and Peul. But also the incredible scenario of the last presidential election. In June 2010, the first round, Diallo, the candidate of the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG), well ahead , with more than 43.6% of the votes cast. Alpha Condé, the candidate of the Rally of the People of Guinea (RPG), is far behind with 18.25%. But in November, the second round is "Alpha" who wins, with over 52.5% of votes. Since then, "Cellou" believes, rightly or wrongly, that stole his victory.

Neutrality

"The leaders of the presidential camp and the opposition no longer see themselves as brothers but as enemies" come together to declare the two main religious leaders of the country, Ratib imam and the Archbishop of Conakry. Their word, rare, demonstrates their concern. At the heart of the current crisis, there is the question of neutrality of the executives of 304 rural communities and 38 urban communes. Communal councils were elected in December 2005. But since the expiry of their term, they are replaced by special delegations appointed by the government.

A doctor at the clinic John Paul II, in Conakry, says he made several demonstrators injured by live ammunition.

For the opposition, the interim executive officers may be of massive fraud, especially in the distribution of voter cards for the next presidential election. Diallo claims that during the 2013 legislative elections, in his district of Conakry, heads of district designated by the authorities "have extracted all the voting cards that bore the surnames of nationals of [its] community [Fulani] automatically suspected opposition activists, to throw them in the trash. " Replica of Alpha Condé in his last interview with Jeune Afrique  : "The new electoral code has ruled out any participation of mayors and delegations in the electoral process." However, the head of state says it is open "for further discussion of this point."

According to Diallo and his ally Sidya Toure, President of the Union of Republican Forces, the simplest solution would be to quickly elect new municipal councils before the presidential election. But power refuses to reverse the electoral calendar. For satisfaction, opposition multiplies the muscular events. Which the police reacted with brutality. The Office of the United Nations Human Rights deplores the death of six people since April 13. A doctor at the clinic John Paul II, in Conakry, says he made several demonstrators injured by live ammunition.

Good offices

Are we at an impasse? In theory, yes. In both camps, the words are hard. Cellou deals Alpha "Sekou Toure of the century". Alpha Cellou accused of "throwing young people in the street hoping that there be dead in order to trigger a military coup." That said, there are two years before the parliamentary elections in September 2013, both sides had violently clashed earlier this year (nearly 60 dead) and had finally agreed to identify voters.

This May 20, the Presidential Palace in Conakry, brothers and Cellou Alpha enemies met for one hour. A first for three years. In this head-to-head, there is nothing out immediately, but, according to his spokesman, Kiridi Bangoura (see p. 65), the Guinean president pledged to "listen to each party to find a consensus. " If dialogue does not advance, the Ghanaian Mohammed Ibn Chambas, the UN Special Representative for West Africa, could provide good offices, as did two years ago its predecessor, the Algerian Said Djinnit.

Whither Guinea? Following the Ebola tragedy, he is not yet cleared, the country may enter recession (see p. 71). Banditry progresses. Witness the killings in the streets of Conakry, of Aissatou Boiro, Director of Treasury in November 2012 and Thierno Aliou Diaouné, coordinator of a UN fund last February.

"I inherited a country, not a state," likes to say President Condé. If they do not want to relive the nightmare of 2009, under Captain Dadis Camara, Alpha, Cellou Sidya and the others will have to consider as brothers and not as enemies.

-www.jeuneafrique.com/